Predicting when a patient may be nearing the final week of life has long been a challenge in hospice care. Day‑to‑day changes, inconsistent visit timing, and evolving family needs can make the transition difficult to recognize in real time, even for the most experienced clinicians. Having earlier, clearer insights can strengthen care planning, communication, and the overall support hospice teams provide.
Predictive analytics offer that added clarity.
A new Axxess white paper, Predicting End‑of‑Life Risk in Hospice Care Using Axxess intelligence®, highlights how real‑time risk indicators help hospice teams identify this transition earlier and support patients and families with greater intention.
Why Earlier Insight Matters
The last week of life often requires heightened symptom management, more frequent communication, and closer coordination with families. It also aligns with Medicare’s Service Intensity Add‑On (SIA), which reimburses for increased RN and social work services during the final seven days.
Yet clinicians may only see patients intermittently, and documented changes don’t always show the full picture.
“Clinicians understand the importance of this period,” said Phil Gigliotti, PhD, Senior Data Scientist at Axxess. “The real challenge is recognizing it early enough to plan care intentionally. Predictive analytics help close that gap by surfacing when a patient may be transitioning into the final week, even when the signs are subtle.”
How the Model Supports Better Decisions
The Axxess intelligence® end‑of‑life risk model analyzes the routine daily documentation clinicians already enter in Axxess Hospice. Every night, it updates predictions across the full census, giving teams a current view of who may need closer attention.
The white paper highlights several practical outcomes:
- The model concentrates attention where it matters, enabling clinicians to focus their time where support is likely needed most. In a sample prediction cycle, most recorded deaths occurred in the highest‑risk group.
- The model flags meaningful changes. High‑risk patients were far more likely to be within the final seven days of life compared to the overall census.
- The model performs consistently in real‑world use. It maintains strong performance across diagnoses and complexity levels.
“Our goal is to provide insights that clinicians can trust,” Gigliotti explained. “So we’ve validated our predictions to ensure they will help clinicians focus their time and attention in the most impactful ways.”
Designed for Real‑World Hospice Workflows
Many predictive models published in academic settings rely on narrow criteria or retrospective data. The Axxess intelligence® model is different:
- It runs on daily visit documentation across the full hospice census.
- It supports every diagnosis and level of complexity, not only select patient groups.
- It produces nightly, real‑time predictions, not historical analyses.
- It is embedded directly within the Axxess ecosystem, making insights easy to use during routine workflows.
This design ensures the insights fit naturally into the way hospice teams already operate.
A Clearer View of a Critical Moment
Predicting the final days of life will never be exact, but earlier visibility can transform how hospice teams prepare, offering time to coordinate care, support families, and ensure patients receive the right level of attention.
By turning routine documentation into meaningful predictive signals, Axxess intelligence® helps organizations:
- Anticipate changing needs
- Align staffing more effectively
- Prepare families with greater clarity
- Plan appropriately for SIA support
As Axxess continues to enhance the model through improved EMR standardization and evolving data structure, predictive capabilities will continue to strengthen across the Axxess Hospice and Axxess Business Intelligence platforms.
To explore the full methodology and findings in the white paper, click here.
